Using precipitation sensitivity to temperature to adjust projected global runoff

Abstract Climate change affects the water cycle. Despite improved accuracy of simulations historical temperature, precipitation and runoff in latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), uncertainty future sensitivity global to temperature remains large. Here, we identify a statistical relationship at scale between (1979–2014) (2015–2100). We use this relation constrain estimates. Our only slightly reduces range sensitivities (order 10% reduction). However, more importantly, it raises expected background warming by 36%–104% compared estimates taken directly from CMIP6 model ensemble. The constrained also indicate shift towards globally wet conditions less dry conditions.